Brazil votes Sunday in a tight presidential runoff between President Lula da Silva and Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro, a contest with direct consequences for U.S. influence in Latin America.

Brazilians went to the polls on Sunday in a presidential runoff between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a vote that will determine whether Latin America's largest economy keeps a left-of-center government or swings sharply toward Washington.

Polls close at 5 p.m. Brasília time, with results expected later in the evening. Roughly 160 million people are registered to vote; more than 50 percent is required to win, and the next president takes office in January.

A first round that broke the polls

Bolsonaro, 45, defied pollsters at the start of the month by finishing ahead of Lula in the first round with 47 percent against the incumbent's 45 percent — a margin of more than 2.2 million votes. That result upended a race that opinion surveys had generally placed narrowly in Lula's favor and shifted momentum toward the right.

Final polling ahead of Sunday's vote pointed to a technical tie. A Datafolha survey released on the eve of the election put Bolsonaro at 51 percent and Lula at 49 percent of valid votes. More than 33 million registered voters did not turn out in the first round, leaving an unusually large pool of abstainers and undecided voters to settle the outcome.

Cost of living and crime dominate

Despite falling inequality and unemployment under Lula, the campaign has been driven by household finances and public safety. High living costs and heavy consumer debt have squeezed voters, and gang violence remains a persistent concern across large parts of the country.

Bolsonaro has built his campaign around a hard-line security platform, pledging maximum-security prisons and chemical castration for serious sexual offenses, alongside promises to lower food prices.

Lula, who first governed from 2003 to 2010, has leaned on state spending to court undecided voters since his first-round setback, including a debt relief program for small businesses, a pledge of free public transport on weekends, and Senate approval of a six-day working week.

Corruption shadows both candidates

The race has been shaped by corruption allegations involving both men and their inner circles.

Bolsonaro's admission that he accepted about $12 million from disgraced former banker Daniel Vorcaro to produce a film about his father's life has hung over his campaign. He is under investigation for corruption, money laundering and tax evasion connected to the case.

Lula served more than a year in prison on corruption convictions that were later annulled. He has consistently framed his opponent as a threat to Brazilian democracy.

The Trump factor

The election has become a test of U.S. influence in the region. Bolsonaro is an ally of President Donald Trump, and a victory would extend a run of right-wing wins in Chile, Peru and Colombia by candidates friendly to Washington. A Lula win would leave Brazil and Mexico — led by Claudia Sheinbaum — as the region's principal left-of-center governments.

Trump imposed a 50 percent tariff on Brazil in 2025, a decision explicitly linked to the coup trial of Flávio Bolsonaro's father, Jair. Many of those measures were later softened, but new levies followed this year over what Washington called unfair trade practices.

Lula has described the administration's closeness to the Bolsonaro family as an attempt to sway the vote, and characterized the tariffs as bullying. Washington denies meddling.

The Bolsonaro inheritance

Jair Bolsonaro was convicted in 2025 of plotting a coup after his 2022 election defeat and is now under house arrest. He lost that race to Lula by the narrowest margin since Brazil's return to democracy in 1985.

Flávio Bolsonaro has promised to seek amnesty for his father if elected, and has campaigned on reform of the Supreme Court — a body his father repeatedly attacked and which has itself been unsettled by a corruption scandal.

The next president will appoint at least three of the court's eleven justices during the coming term, giving the result lasting institutional weight beyond the four-year mandate.

What to watch

Turnout among the 33 million voters who stayed home in the first round will be decisive, as will the distribution of votes won by eliminated first-round candidates. Bolsonaro has consolidated much of the right behind him, including an endorsement from third-placed author and psychiatrist Augusto Cury.

With the race within polling error, a result that is close in the popular vote is the most likely outcome. Both campaigns have signaled they will scrutinize the count closely.

Sources

Reuters (via NBC News); The Associated Press; Datafolha polling published by Rio Times Online.